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Earnings calendar is the time for analysts and traders to nervously watch if their stock picks were winners or losers. At AKAnomics, we follow the world's macro-economic and industry data as it unfolds, and assess (weekly) what it implies for the revenue growth of specific companies (revenue Nowcasting). Nowcasting estimates have historically had high hit rates for identifying revenue disconnects from market expectations.
So what is Nowcasting suggesting? AKAnomics is tracking 100+ US companies within the Industrials/Materials sector with ~$3T market cap. The estimates suggest steady "aggregate" revenue growth in 2024 Q1 vs the previous quarter. However, as we peel the layers, we estimate 20% of the companies to show large revenue surprise relative to market expectations. Peeling further, 2/3rd of them show downside surprise - mostly names from the Paper & Packaging and Transportation subsectors.
The chart? The chart below shows aggregate revenue surprise by subsector as estimated by AKAnomics - more subsectors with negative values than positive. Aggregate revenue surprise is the average of the revenue surprise vs consensus (expressed in standard deviations) for names in that subsector.
