24Q2 Industrials Revenue Growth: Repeat of 24Q1?

As Q2 earnings season approaches, what should we expect for US Industrials companies? Our Nowcasting analysis of 100+ companies is suggesting revenue misses in Chemicals, Transportation, and Paper & Packaging – similar to 24Q1. Our analysis is based on real-time tracking of thousands of industry and macro data across the globe.

We remain in a low-growth environment, with the average Y/Y revenue growth across the names we track estimated at 0.7%, slightly below consensus at 1.1%. Even with 30% of the names estimated to show revenue surprise relative to consensus, this remains a low figure relative to our historical data consistent with the relationship we see between revenue surprise signals, economic growth, and the quality of our signals (hit rates).

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