The Nowcasting Blog

As we focus our attention on 26Q2, AKAnomics assessment of global macro & industry data suggests Steady revenue growth with slight improvement in organic revenue growth counterbalanced with lower FX and M&A. A high degree of consensus revenue disconnects (45% of the names we track), making it a particularly important quarter to look for revenue beats & misses, and for stock picking Revenue surprise estimates are balanced between beat estimates and miss estimates. This is in s

AKAnomics’ thesis has been that the implications of detailed global industry (from macro series) data is not baked into consensus, primarily because the Wall Street researchers lack the sophisticated tools required to digest the complexity of global macro/industry data, and deduce their implications to company performance in real time. AKAnomics hence estimates revenues of US companies based on global macro data, and updates its estimates each week as new data is made availab

We are delighted to share that yet again in 26Q1, AKAnomics revenue estimates delivered a strong hit rate vs consensus. AKAnomics Inc showed a hit rate (right side of consensus) of 75% with 90% of the companies having reported, in-line with the average of 68% for our 3+ year live period, and well-above typical hit rates of 48-52% for sell-side. We continue to show that continuously monitoring live global macro data provides an edge to investors. We build the detailed mosaic o

With the earnings season in full swing, AKAnomics is expecting a lot of revenue disconnects. In fact of the 174 US Industrials, Materials, and Consumer names it tracks, it expects 35% of them to beat revenues, and 17% to miss revenues – way more beats than misses. AKAnomics estimates have been on the right side of consensus 68% of the time for beats/misses over the live 3+ years of history. Industrials sector is expected to show a significant improvement in underlying organic

We are delighted to share that once again in 25Q4, AKAnomics Inc’s revenue estimates for 140 companies delivered a hit rate (right side of consensus) of 70%, similar to the rest of the live period since 2022, and backfilled history of 10+ years. We built AKAnomics Inc to continuously monitor live global macro data to help investors determine if a company’s current quarter revenues will beat or miss consensus. The global macro data provides information on the performance of de

AKAnomics is delighted to announce that it has expanded its Nowcasting revenue tracking methodology to now track 175+ companies in the US Industrials (88), Materials (41), Consumer Discretionary (34), and Consumer Staples (13) GICS sectors. Together these companies have a combined market cap of $5.4T, and average daily volume of $25+ Billion. AKAnomics revenue estimates for the current unannounced quarter shows a 65%+ hit rate (i.e., landing on the right side of consensus) ov

In 25Q3 AKAnomics highlighted 45 companies with significant disconnect from consensus, out of the 140 US Industrials/Materials/Consumer Discretionary names it tracks. With 25Q3 earnings season wrapping up with a majority of those 140 companies having announced their results, AKAnomics estimates were on the right side of consensus for 33 of the 45 names (73% hit rate). The higher the hit rate, the stronger is the forward returns characteristics (see blog ) , and positioning s

AKAnomics delivers Revenue Nowcasting estimates for US Industrials and Materials names to fundamental and quantitative hedge funds. A question persistent on investors’ minds is whether the economy is showing signs of strain from tariffs, inflation, and demand. Based on our real-time analysis of 6000+ macro data from around the world, AKAnomics data indicates that 25Q3 organic revenue growth for this group is holding up well, slightly better than 25Q2 driven by improving gro