Webinar summary for The Nowcasting Edge: Monthly AKAsights into Industrials / Focus on Q3 (08/25/2025)

1. Q2 Recap

   1. Q2 Industrials organic revenue growth came in flat as outlined by AKAnomics in its last webinar.

   2. AKAnomics had highlighted 25 companies as beat/misses, out of which 67% were on the right side of consensus, a figure similar to our historical data, as well as in line with the last 6 quarters of live data.

   3. AKAnomics data showed an impressive 4% sector-neutral returns during the Q2 earnings season of July 15 - August 15. For details, please feel free to contact us.

2. Q3 Expectations:

   1. Slight improvement of .5% in organic growth relative to Q2 but still early in the quarter with much more data to come. Leading indicators showing a slowdown in Q3, but not yet in the Nowcasting data.

   2. Fair bit of dispersion across sectors in different ways:

      1. Growth:

         1. Deceleration in Ground Transportation and Electrical Equipment, and "Below Par" in Chemicals and Household Durables.

         2. Meaningful acceleration in Construction Materials, Metals & Mining, and Auto Components.

      2. Consensus Disconnects:

         1. At a high; Good for stock picking.

         2. More positive surprises in Household Durables and Chemicals.

         3. More negative surprises in Construction Materials, Machinery, Ground Transportation, Electrical Equipment, and Metals & Mining.

   3. Large industry changes that are meaningful to US Industrials names:

      1. Positive: NA Metals & Mining, NA Manufacturing improvement, NA Mining for Construction Materials.

      2. Negative: AP Chemicals, NA Autos, NA Electrical Manufacturing, NA Ground Transportation, NA Retail Sales.