Nowcasting Timing vs Error Rates

Ajit Agrawal, Aanya Jeganathen*, Neeraj Sudhakar 

At AKAnomics, the process of generating company revenue estimates through Nowcasting is largely based on incoming macroeconomic data. As we progress through the quarter, there is more and more information available regarding the gyrations in different regional industries, which form the basis for our Nowcasting estimates. It is hence normal to expect AKAnomics estimates get better as the quarter progresses. 

The chart above shows that as the quarter progresses, the average Root Mean Square Error for our existing company models (since 2015 across all the 118 companies we track) drops significantly with the arrival of new information through the quarter, and steadying as we approach the end of the quarter.  

*Aanya Jeganathan is a Summer Intern at AKAnomics Inc, and we thank her for her contributions. Aanya is a senior at Rutgers Prep High School in NJ.