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24Q4 Nowcasting Shows Far More Revenue Misses than Beats

For 2024Q4, AKAnomics data is estimating many of the US Industrials/Materials/Consumer Discretionary names to miss consensus revenues (~20%) with very few estimated to beat consensus revenues (~4-5%). This negative skew is the highest AKAnomics has seen in the last 2 years—such large skews typically indicate slowing economic growth. Our point-in-time analysis indicates that revenue misses are typically accompanied by underperformance in forward returns relative to the Industrials sector.


As a group, the data shows that the US Industrial names exhibit a lower growth than 24Q3, with a notable exception being Metals & Mining names. The largest negative surprises come from the Chemicals group.



 What is unexpected, however, is that the organic revenue growth for the entire group remains comparable to 24Q3, and much of the negative surprise is coming from unfavorable currency impact, affecting the sectors with high global exposure (e.g., chemicals, machinery, paper & packaging).



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